TO: Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team
FROM: Tony Fabrizio, Fabrizio Lee & Associates – Chief Pollster, DJTFP / RNC
Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC
SUBJ: New York Times to Harris Campaign: We Tried
DATE: November 3, 2024
BLUF: On Saturday, top Democrats appear to have received early access to an absurd outlier poll of Iowa conducted by the Des Moines Register. Not to be outdone, the New York Times arrived right on cue with another set of polling data being used to drive a voter suppression narrative against President Trump’s supporters. Some in the media are choosing to amplify a mad dash to dampen and diminish voter enthusiasm. It has not worked. Our voters are like President Trump: they fight.
The New York Times is polling an electorate that looks far to the left of 2020, despite hard facts of voter registration and early voting indicate a current electorate that has shifted only to the right in every state.
•In Georgia, the New York Times claims the 2024 electorate is D+1 by party self-ID. (CNN exits in 2020: R+4)
•In Michigan, the New York Times claims the 2024 electorate is D+2 by party self-ID. (CNN exits: even)
•In North Carolina, the New York Times claims the 2024 electorate voted for Biden by 2 points in 2020.
•In Pennsylvania, the New York Times claims the 2024 electorate voted for Biden by 4 points in 2020.
•In Wisconsin, the New York Times claims the 2024 electorate voted for Biden by 3 points in 2020.
Facts about the New York Times’s final polls in 2020, fielded in October 2020:
•The New York Times claimed Joe Biden led in Michigan by 8 points (49-41), based on a 23-point lead with seniors. CNN exits confirm this was only 21 points off. In the final 2024 poll, they claim Harris leads by 9 among seniors.
•The New York Times claimed Joe Biden led in Nevada by 6 points (49-43), based on a 6-point lead with seniors. CNN exits confirm this was only 12 points off. In the final 2024 poll, they claim Harris leads by 1 among seniors.
•The New York Times claimed Joe Biden led in North Carolina by 3 points (48-45), based on President Trump leading among seniors by 8 points. CNN exits confirm this was only 11 points off. In the final 2024 poll, they claim President Trump leads seniors by 2 points.
•The New York Times claimed Joe Biden led in Pennsylvania by 6 points (49-43), based on a 12-point lead with seniors. CNN exits confirm this was only 18 points off. In the final 2024 poll, they claim Harris leads by 2 points among seniors.
•The New York Times claimed Joe Biden led in Wisconsin by 9 points (52-41), based on a 15-point lead with seniors. CNN exits confirm this was only 21 points off. In the final 2024 poll, they claim Harris leads by 8 points among seniors.
•For good measure, the New York Times also claimed Joe Biden was leading in Florida by 3 points (47-44), based on a 2-point lead among seniors. CNN exits confirm this was only 12 points off.
The New York Times even helpfully admitted in their story that they had a harder time reaching Republican voters than in their 2020 polls, which were notoriously inaccurate as outlined above.
At the same time, NBC News and Emerson College both show a tied national popular vote at 49-49. Emerson College shows President Trump ahead 56-44 in the Midwest, leading among seniors 53-47, and getting an historic share of the African American and Hispanic vote.
The NBC and Emerson surveys largely confirm the polls released by Atlas Intel, rated America’s most accurate pollster in 2020, showing President Trump with a 1-point lead nationally and ahead in the battleground states.
Read the memo HERE.