TO: Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team
FROM: Tony Fabrizio, Chief Pollster, DJTFP / RNC & Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC
DATE: September 8, 2024
RE: NYT / Siena National Poll Shows Trump +2 Among Registered Voters
BLUF: The New York Times & Siena College released their latest national survey, conducted fully post-Labor Day and post-DNC convention (September 3-6).
President Trump leads Kamala Harris by 2 points in both the head-to-head and multi-candidate ballots among all registered voters nationally.
In their latest survey, we continue to see a sustained pattern of President Trump overperforming with black voters (17-74 among registered voters; Trump +5 compared to 2020 exits and Harris running 13 points behind Biden) and Hispanic voters (42-51 among registered voters; Trump +10 compared to 2020 exits and Harris running 14 points behind Biden).
President Trump also continues to overperform among young voters. He trails by just 1 point (46-47) among voters aged 18-29, again +10 compared to 2020 exits while Harris runs 13 points behind Biden.
It’s no wonder then that, no matter which competing team is in charge of the Harris campaign on a given day, they have a consistent strategy of playing defense among young and non-white voters. Regardless of how they spin it to the media, they are playing defense and they know it.
On a side note, we have noted previously how President Trump regularly overperforms his standing in NYT / Siena surveys of battleground states compared to the reported 2020 results. The same is true of their national surveys.
The simple truth is that when a survey reflects the actual electorate, President Trump is in the lead.
As you may remember, NYT / Siena released silly numbers in their August battleground state surveys. Their polls reflected electorates where Biden won Michigan by 7, Pennsylvania by 5, Wisconsin by 9, Arizona by 7, and Nevada by 9. None of those were anywhere near reality.
Perhaps they took our notes on this to heart, as their national survey released today shows 37% of registered voters having voted for President Trump in 2020 compared to 40% having voted for Joe Biden – considerably more accurate to the reported national results than any of those battleground surveys from last month.
Read the full memo here.
Kamala’s America Is Dangerous
Kamala’s America is one where illegal migrant criminals run free to terrorize innocents.
These stories are all just from the past week. America would cease to exist if Kamala is given four more years in the White House.
•It was uncovered that four of the Venezuelan illegal immigrant gang members terrorizing Aurora, Colorado all crossed the southern border in 2022 and 2023 under Border Czar Harris.
•The vicious Tren de Aragua gang is now present in the small town of Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin. Police there announced the arrest of an illegal immigrant for violently and sexually attacking a woman. The illegal immigrant is a member of Tren de Aragua.
◦Wisconsin Rep. Tom Tiffany wrote, “No town is immune from the Harris-Biden Border Invasion. Venezuelan gang members have infiltrated our communities, including here in Wisconsin. We need mass deportations ASAP.”
•In Massachusetts, ICE, which Kamala Harris wants to abolish, arrested an illegal immigrant for rape.
•A Haitian migrant brought into the country by a Border Czar Harris program was arrested for allegedly molesting a 10-year-old boy.
•In Louisiana, an illegal immigrant was arrested for allegedly kidnapping a 13-year-old girl and raping her at knifepoint.
•The New York Times covered how “Kamala Harris’s wave of mass immigration is raising housing costs, straining healthcare services, and filling public schools in middle American cities like Springfield, Ohio.”