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McLaughlin Poll:
Trump Leads Harris by 2 Points
By Mark Swanson
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Democrat challenger Kamala Harris by 2 points among likely voters, according to a recent poll released by McLaughlin & Associates.
Trump leads Harris 49% to 47% head-to-head among likely voters, according to the poll released Sunday. Among less likely voters, Harris leads Trump 43% to 36% with 21% undecided.
Among registered voters, Trump and Harris are tied at 47% apiece head-to-head, according to the survey. Harris improves over President Joe Biden with young women and Black voters in that model. Harris also leads Trump among independents, 44% to 42%, according to the poll.
When multiple candidates are added — minus Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign two weeks ago to endorse Trump — Harris leads Trump 47% to 46% with 5% undecided among likely voters, according to the poll. Among less likely voters, Harris leads Trump 36% to 27% with 33% undecided.
Harris leads Trump 40% to 35% among independents in that model, the survey said.
McLaughlin & Associates surveyed 2,000 registered voters between Aug. 29 and Sept. 1. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
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Despite The Coordinated Democrat Attacks And Hoaxes, President Trump Is Stronger Than Ever
Despite every play the Democrats and their Fake News allies have run to silence him — Russiagate, multiple impeachment hoaxes, indictments, rigged trials, and sham hearings — President Donald J. Trump is in a stronger position than ever before to win this election.
On this date in 2016, Hillary Clinton had a 67.8% chance to win; in 2020, Joe Biden had a 71% chance to win.
Today, according to Nate Silver, President Trump has a 61.5% chance to win.
Pundits agree:
•The Dispatch: “By the numbers, Trump is in better electoral shape today than he was at this point in 2016 versus Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Ditto in 2020 versus Biden.”
•The Hill: “Harris … is behind where President Biden and Hillary Clinton stood at this point in their own battles against former President Trump during the 2020 and 2016 presidential races.”
•NBC’s Steve Kornacki: “In 2016, Hillary Clinton led on average by five points. Of course, Donald Trump won in 2016. And Joe Biden had an even bigger lead on average, Labor Day 2020.”
•CNN’s David Chalian: “[Kamala], in places like Georgia, is not doing well with white college-educated voters.”
•Puck’s Peter Hamby: “The under-30 gender gap — it’s very different than past elections. Much bigger … Kamala Harris has barely moved the needle with young men. They have gone more toward Trump … this could be fatal for her campaign.”
•Donny Deutsch: “[Kamala] is still underperforming versus what Biden did with people of color.”
President Trump has always been underestimated, and that’s precisely why he is in the best position he has ever been to emerge victorious in November.
After all, Americans know they were better off under President Trump — and they know he’ll never stop fighting for them.
Trump Campaign Memo: The Blue Mirage of Mail-in & Early Ballots
TO: Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team
FROM: Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC
SUBJ: The Blue Mirage of Mail-in & Early Ballots
DATE: September 6, 2024
We are about to enter a new phase of the campaign: the start of absentee, mail-in, and early voting.
To be clear: Kamala Harris’s campaign and their allies in the fake news media are already spreading misinformation about the state of play as part of a coordinated and intentional voter suppression effort against President Trump’s supporters. Every data point will be cherry-picked to discourage people from voting for President Trump and to thwart our campaign’s efforts to swamp the vote and deliver a victory on November 5ththat is too big to rig.
To help combat these voter suppression efforts, here are some facts about the “Blue Mirage” of the earliest ballots that will be requested and voted in battleground states, and how early Democrat leads in absentee and vote by mail are not at all predictive of victory on November 5th and may, in fact, be indicating a major failure to meet the enormous margins that they delivered in the 2020 election:
North Carolina
Ballots will go out imminently in North Carolina, marking the start of pre-Election Day voting in the battleground states. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 2:1 in requested absentee ballots in 2020. In 2020, President Trump carried North Carolina despite a 421,912 ballot deficit in absentee by-mail votes.
Pennsylvania
Thanks to Pennsylvania’s permanent absentee application list, Democrats had a nearly 3:1 advantage in requested absentee ballots in the 2020 campaign. In 2020, President Trump fought off a 1,400,150 ballot deficit in absentee and mail-in ballots, including drop boxes.
Nevada
Nevada has near-universal mail-in ballots, although many voters still choose to vote early in-person or on Election Day instead. As a result, mail-in ballot returns were nearly 2:1 Democrat over Republican in the 2020 election. In Clark County, President Trump fought off a 130,727 ballot deficit among mail-in ballots.
Arizona
Due to the permanent early vote list, Arizona is unique in that Republicans and Democrats are competitive in terms of the total number of ballots mailed out. However, many Republicans choose to vote early in-person or on Election Day instead. President Trump fought off a 138,476 deficit among all early ballots in 2020, including early in-person votes.
Michigan
Michigan does not have party registration, but we know from our own analysis that behavioral Democrats outnumbered behavioral Republicans in absentee and mail-in voting by a 2:1 margin in the 2020 election, and these votes totaled nearly 60 percent of all ballots cast, more than 3.2 million in aggregate. The New York Times reported a Biden +40 advantage among absentee ballots in Michigan.
Wisconsin
Similar to Michigan, Wisconsin does not have party registration. We know from our analysis that behavioral Democrats outnumbered behavioral Republicans by a more than 3:1 margin, approaching a 4:1 margin, among absentee and mail ballots in 2020. Roughly 40 percent of votes cast in 2020 in Wisconsin were done by mail, including drop boxes, totaling roughly 1.3 million ballots in aggregate.
Georgia
Georgia also lacks party registration, but we know from election results that President Trump fought off a 398,204 ballot deficit among absentee by mail votes in 2020.
Read the full memo here.
President Donald J. Trump Announces Dr. Ben Carson as National Faith Chairman for 2024 Campaign
PALM BEACH, FL – Today, President Donald J. Trump announced former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Dr. Benjamin S. Carson Sr., will serve as the National Faith Chairman for his campaign for President of the United States.
“Kamala Harris and the radical left have waged war on America’s faith community since the day they took office. Her selection of Governor Tim Walz as her Vice-Presidential nominee solidifies their commitment to intensifying those efforts. Ben Carson, a man of unwavering faith, is the perfect person to work with leaders of the faith community on behalf of the campaign to promote the protection of religious freedom and prosperity in our country. Nobody was a bigger champion for the faith community than me, and I look forward to working with Ben Carson to fight back against Kamala Harris’ war on faith and making America great again in November.” – Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States
“Since America’s founding nearly 250 years ago, our country has served as a beacon of freedom, hope, and prosperity for the world. President Trump believes America’s best days are ahead, and in order to reestablish ourselves as ‘that shining city upon a hill,’ we must acknowledge we are One Nation Under God. I’m honored to serve as his National Faith Chairman and will work diligently with the faith community to get him elected. There is only one candidate in this race that has defended religious liberty and supported Americans of faith. That candidate is Donald J. Trump.” – Dr. Ben Carson, Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
ICYMI: MEDIA ADVISORY: The Protecting America Initiative to Host Special Guest President Trump and Pennsylvanians Concerned by the Threat of Communist China to U.S. Agriculture
SMITHTON, Penn. — The Protecting America Initiative (PAI) will host Special Guest President Donald J. Trump and Pennsylvanians who are concerned by the threat of Communist China to U.S. agriculture at an event in Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania.
The event will be hosted by the Protecting America Initiative senior advisors: former Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell and former U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin. The discussion will focus on the Chinese Communist Party’s growing threat to America’s food supply and how to help our agriculture community combat this threat.
During his administration, President Trump negotiated the ground-breaking USMCA trade deal that replaced NAFTA and put America’s farmers first. The USMCA provided new market access for all U.S. agricultural products, a fair non-discriminatory pricing plan, and improved grading standards for all products. It has been reported that the USMCA trade deal led to $2 billion in annual increases for the U.S. in agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico, with an overall increase of $65 billion in gross domestic product for farmers and ranchers. At the time, then-Senator Harris voted against President Trump’s USMCA trade deal, voting against putting America’s farmers first. Overall, Harris has been weak on China throughout her entire career, including opposing President Trump’s tariffs against China.
The Protecting America Initiative is a nonprofit organization focused on safeguarding the U.S. and state governments from Communist China’s growing influence in the states.
Press RSVP HERE.
WHO:
Pennsylvanians concerned by the threat of Communist China to U.S. agriculture
President Donald J. Trump
Former Congressman Lee Zeldin, Senior Advisor to the Protecting America Initiative
Former Ambassador Richard Grenell, Senior Advisor to the Protecting America Initiative
WHEN:
Monday, September 23, 2024
WHERE:
Smithton, PA 15479
Press RSVP HERE. Additional details will be provided upon RSVP.
BACKGROUND:
The Protecting America Initiative is a conservative nonprofit organization that supports state lawmakers in their effort to crack down on the growing threat of the Communist Chinese Party as they attempt to exert control over America’s economy, food supply, lawmaking, and education. The group is led by Richard Grenell, former Ambassador to Germany and Acting Director of National Intelligence in the Trump Administration, and Lee Zeldin, former New York congressman and gubernatorial candidate.
Team Trump Solidifies Law and Order Agenda
Today Team Trump further proved that they are the law and order ticket. Future Vice President JD Vance spent the day in San Diego surveying Kamala’s broken border while Trump accepted an endorsement from The National Fraternal Order of Police (FOP), the largest law enforcement labor organization in the country.
Here are highlights from today:
SEN. JD VANCE: “Re-implement Title 42, the Remain in Mexico Policy worked, re-implement deportations, you’ve got to be willing to send people back who cross that border illegally and end the asylum fraud.”
SEN. JD VANCE: “Republicans believe not in censorship — we believe in free speech and debate. It’s one of the most important things that RFK said in his message endorsing Donald Trump… Kamala Harris is the candidate of censorship. She’s the candidate of using Big Tech to silence Americans. She’s the candidate of shutting Americans up. Donald Trump is the candidate of letting us have the debate.”
PRESIDENT TRUMP: “I am so deeply honored to receive the Fraternal Order of Police official endorsement for President of the United States.”
PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Since Kamala Harris took office, she has presided over a 43% increase in violent crime—including a 58% increase in rape, and an 89% increase in aggravated assault. And under Comrade Kamala, assaults on police officers are up a minimum of 32%… and shootings of our police officers are up 16%. THE DAY I TAKE THE OATH OF OFFICE IS THE DAY THAT KAMALA’S CRIME WAVE COMES TO AN END.”
PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Kamala Harris and the Radical Democrat Party have led a war on law enforcement in America. As a result, families that do everything right, and carry this country on their shoulders, have watched helplessly as their communities dissolved around them.”
PRESIDENT TRUMP: “I will break the grip of the Marxists on our justice system and I will END Kamala’s war on police. Together, we will launch a WAR on violent crime instead.”
Top MUST WATCH Moments From Charlotte, North Carolina
President Donald J. Trump just wrapped up remarks at the Fraternal Order of Police’s fall meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina, where he accepted their endorsement and reiterated his support for the brave men and women of law enforcement.
Here are the top MUST WATCH moments you missed:
•President Trump accepted an “overwhelming” endorsement from the Fraternal Order of Police: “I am so deeply honored to receive the Fraternal Order of Police’s official endorsement for president United States. Thank you all very much.”
•President Trump declared an end Democrats’ war on law enforcement: “I will break the grip of the Marxists on our justice system and I will END Kamala’s war on police … Together, we will launch a WAR on violent crime in America.”
•President Trump outlined his commitment to law enforcement in his second term: “I will sign legislation to strengthen protections for police officers — so important — and I will crack down on Marxist prosecutors like Philadelphia’s Larry Krasner and LA’s George Gascon.”
•President Trump emphasized the crime crisis plaguing our cities under Kamala: “Since Kamala Harris took office, she has presided over a 43% increase in violent crime — including a 58% increase in rape and an 89% increase in aggravated assault. And under Comrade Kamala, assaults on police officers are up a minimum of 32% … The day I take the oath of office is the day that Kamala’s crime wave comes to an end.”
•President Trump laid out his plan to dismantle the cartels: “A ten-year mandatory minimum sentence for anyone guilty of human smuggling, a guaranteed life sentence for [anyone] guilty of child trafficking, and the death penalty for drug dealers and anyone guilty of child or woman sex trafficking.”
•President Trump broke down Kamala’s Marxist record: “Kamala was the original Marxist prosecutor. She shielded illegal alien crack dealers from deportation … [She] called herself a ‘leader’ of the movement for no cash bail.”